If the Conservative Party take note, the proposals in this report could put the UK at the forefront of tackling the biggest challenge we face in a generation. In many ways, the messenger is as important as the message. The UK Government is beginning to understand both the threat of the climate crisis and the opportunities it presents.
The striking difference in this report is the recognition that the journey to net zero will make our society and country a better place. New jobs, a growing economy, fairer wealth distribution, business opportunities and all the attendant benefits of better health, more cohesive communities and greater access to nature will all result from our journey to a stable climate.
Most previous reports have focussed on the costs, whether that be financial implications, job losses and the difficulties of transition. These are often combined with doom-laden predictions of future damage from floods and extreme weather or sea level rise. But this report is different. It acknowledges these challenges but paints a positive picture of a net zero future, the creation of 700,000 new jobs by 2030 and £1 trillion of potential new investment. It highlights the new economic opportunities in the North East from offshore wind in the North Sea and the benefits to isolated rural communities of onshore wind and solar. It demonstrates how we could all end up with cheaper bills and healthier cities freed of pollution, alongside a more equal society.
The report states that,
Ultimately, the benefits of net zero will outweigh the costs. In some estimates, the UK would see approximately 2% additional growth in GDP. Our engagement and own analysis have shown that the benefits of decarbonisation are larger if it is done sooner.
Analysis by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) quoted in the report suggests that public sector debt could be 23% higher if we continue at the current rate of transition, with early action on the climate crisis significantly reducing the negative fiscal impact of reaching net zero. In other words, the chance to change is now.
This makes it a wakeup call to government. UK governments have been able to take some pride from consistently placing well in the global environmental performance league tables. Largely by moving from coal to gas and outsourcing manufacturing, we have reduced our carbon emissions dramatically (by 40% based on 1990 levels). But the report warns this pride is misplaced. Other countries are catching up and as a result, the UK will miss out on some of the benefits. France, Germany and the United States have all announced massive investments in net zero that will boost investment in technology, jobs and cutting emissions. There is real competition for net zero investment and if the UK doesn’t step up, we will fall behind.
The report calls for significant investment and as importantly, focusses on some of the ‘boring’ things that are getting in the way. We need more investment in our grid capacity. The planning system that slows onshore wind and solar development need upgrading. We need to devolve decisions to local authorities and provide strategy for and investment in domestic energy efficiency. To do all this we need investment in skills and training and we need to generate more investment and ultimately change the structure of our energy market. All these changes will unlock the potential of business, technology and communities.
I was particularly pleased to see the report highlight the need to decarbonise our homes by making them more energy efficient. The level of retrofit work has slowed since 2012 through a combination of lack of vision, strategy, and the impact of piecemeal funding. The report proposes a strategic plan to retrofit homes, including the provision of long-term funding and policy change. It proposes bringing forward necessary consultations to ensure the the Future Homes Standards come into effect in 2025 (it’s stating the obvious, but we really shouldn’t be building energy inefficient homes now) and includes investment in heat networks and a more local approach to energy generation and consumption.
Let’s be clear, this is a business-friendly report. It sees the market as the driver of the change we need and, to be fair, there is history to back it up. A climate-friendly example comes in the form of the whaling industry, which despite successful campaigning, really died as an industry when there was no money to be made. Investment in renewable energy is soaring as profits prove attractive. Coal fell out of favour in a large part because gas became cheap. The market can be a truly powerful force when it wants to be. This report aims to encourage that market shift.
It is not perfect of course. Some of the proposals are still bound by ‘the way we do things now’ and it has a tendency to celebrate the current government’s sometimes questionable achievements. But for a sitting Conservative government, this is a radical and welcome report. If this kind of urgent and dynamic thinking is now sitting at the heart of UK Government then there is hope for the future. Now up to Rishi Sunak and his Cabinet to take this seriously and really commit to the proposals it puts forward.
