A couple of weeks before the UN released their latest, and most urgent report on Climate Change the UK Committee on Climate Change released an almost unnoticed report on decarbonising our power system. Surely one of the most important things we can do to tackle climate change. It is hopeful and challenging in equal measure – and like many strategies released today, relies heavily on hydrogen, a technology unproven anywhere at scale making it a dangerous assumption that a decarbonised grid is a possibility any time soon.
The Energy Mix
It reminds us of the still-growing importance of electricity and how it will only become more integral to everyday life. From providing light and heat to powering transportation, data connectivity, and other essential services – electricity is at the heart of modern society. However, the current power system heavily relies on fossil fuels, which contributes significantly to climate change. As such, the Climate Change Committee’s new report, “Delivering a Decarbonised Power System,” proposes a rapid change to the power sector to deliver a net-zero emissions power system by 2035.
The good news, then? They say it can be done – but only with a radical overhaul and quick action. The Climate Change Committee estimates that our power system should consist of 70% renewables, along with biomass and nuclear acting as a baseline by 2035.
Resilience is a critical aspect of the proposed changes. As we shift to renewable energy sources the report highlights the need for a whole-system design that takes into account variability with low wind or sun days, geographical distribution, and the resulting need for multi-week energy storage. Smart systems will play a role too, in managing and ‘flattening’ demand.
But there will still be surplus energy produced (at night and in the summer for example). They see the surplus energy used produce hydrogen – a fuel source useful for the most energy intensive industries like steel making and possibly aviation.
Making hydrogen a reality
The report shares a faith in hydrogen with many other documents and strategies I have seen. Up to 30% of our power production will have to come from hydrogen if we are to decarbonise our energy system. But we must remember it is a truly uncertain and untested technology, requiring massive investment in new technologies, unproven at scale and without any guaranteed return. The infrastructure required alongside safety concerns mean the road to a hydrogen economy is long and fraught with challenges. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try, but when reports like this rely on hydrogen meeting 30% of our energy needs within 15 years, I fear this is naïve. At best it could lead to complacency and at worst we could find ourselves with 30% of our power needs still provided by fossil fuels – our fallback if the technology proves to be unusable.
The report admits as much. It notes that fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS) will still form part of the mix – backing up the renewable energy system and providing that much needed resilience. At a predicted 5% or so of energy production by 2035 that is fine. But if hydrogen is not providing the 30% of predicted generation then you-know-what will fill the gap. If we are still powering 30% of our energy needs with fossil fuels in 2035 then we will have failed.
As well as relying too much on hydrogen as a solution it misses a huge opportunity. It barely mentions demand management through energy efficiency. Whilst it appreciates demand management through smart systems there is nothing about home or business energy efficiency. Maybe by no coincidence, estimates of a 30% energy reduction could more than replace that reliance on hydrogen. I have written in previous blogs about the benefits of energy efficiency and they are well known but they should be part of any plan to decarbonise our system.
In conclusion
The Climate Change Committee’s report on delivering a decarbonised power system highlights the urgency of decarbonising the power sector to meet net-zero emissions targets by 2035. It is a well-researched and useful in highlighting resilience, whole-system design, hydrogen production, supply chain improvements, and government leadership as key components in achieving this. Whilst the report provides a comprehensive roadmap, more emphasis should be placed on energy efficiency to reduce demand, thereby reducing the need for new energy generation.
